Robert Shiller with CNBC

This is what Robert Shiller said on CNBC interview: https://youtu.be/bZyaKPlWvbc

“Maybe if you have a chance to delay your purchase, it might be a good time to do it. You might get it a little cheaper in another six months.”

“I think it works pretty well most of the time and I wouldn’t tinker too much with it. We have smart people on the Fed and the Treasury Secretary I admire, Janet Yellen. They may have to accept something of a recession.”

Shiller acknowledged there are other factors besides economic conditions that determine “the right time” for any buyer or seller to act, depending on their situation.

“Home purchase is such a family decision, I’d hate to overreact,” Shiller added.

“We do have a declining market at the moment, but there are costs to not selling at the right time, the convenient time, or you might lose a house that you liked to somebody else. I don’t think it’s an easy answer to that question.”

What realtor sees in the current market

  1. Micro markets are still seeing multiple offers on entry level homes. 
  2. Good deals are in any market, just need to do the work. Always be ready and keep looking for a right deal.
  3. Robert Schiller says in a very safe manner. Because he doesn’t really know what will happen. 
  4. More expensive to buy, but cheap 3% mortgage bus is gone and we need to adjust to new norm to be in the market.
  5. White board talk:
    1. Assuming 19% decline, how do you time it to get the best deal? Simple answer is, you just can’t time the market.
    2. Light weight MMA fighter (Fed funds rate and mortgage rate) choking on heavy weight fighter (real estate market)
  6. Talk to a few realtors in your area to know what’s going on in your market.
  7. 2008 vs 2023
    1. Bank issues
    2. Job loss 2.6m in 2008 vs. job increases in Jan 2023
    3. Subprime lending vs Tight lending environment
    4. High inventory. Vs Historic low inventory
    5. 6% mortgage rate vs. 6.25% today
    6. Inflation 3.8% vs 6%
    7. War in 2008 vs War now
    8. Swine flu vs Covid

Don’t pay attention to headlines, talk to local experts, read between the lines, stay in the market and you can always find a good deal in any market!


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