Hey everyone, welcome back! If you’ve been following my content, you know I’ve been in the real estate game since 2008—that’s about 18 years of ups, downs, and everything in between. Today, I want to talk about something that’s been bugging me: how not to learn about the housing market, and more importantly, the right way to do it. Trust me, the doom-and-gloom crowd isn’t going to love this, but if you’re serious about buying, selling, or just staying informed, this could save you a ton of time and frustration.
Let’s face it—when you hop on YouTube and search for “housing market,” you’re bombarded with sensational headlines, fiery thumbnails, and predictions of impending crashes. I’ve seen it all, and honestly, a lot of it is misleading at best. These influencers often have their own agendas, like selling apps, courses, or merch, or pushing investor-centric views that benefit from scaring everyday buyers off the market. I’ll break down why this is the wrong approach, and then show you how to get real, actionable insights from reliable data sources.
The Wrong Way: Falling for Clickbait and Sensationalism on YouTube
Picture this: You type “housing market” into YouTube, and the top results are from news channels like Yahoo Finance or Fox Local, giving you a 10,000-foot view. They talk Fed funds rates, mortgage impacts, and maybe some local slowdowns—but it’s all surface-level stuff. Scroll a bit further, and you hit the influencers.
Take this one guy, Nick (I won’t say his full name). He’s been predicting a massive market crash for the last five or seven years. I finally stopped watching because it’s the same doom loop every time. He sells an app that gives basic market data for free, but charges $50 a month for “insights.” Here’s the thing: You can get that same local data for free from your realtor. Unless you’re a hedge fund manager buying across all 50 states, you don’t need it. Plus, he seems tied to investment groups that thrive on negative sentiment—when regular homebuyers sit on the sidelines, investors swoop in with less competition.
Then there are the thumbnails: houses on fire, red skies, “deflation is crazy,” “takeover rent shock,” or “it begins” with dramatic drone shots. One video highlights a home dropping from $317,000 to $220,000—like that’s proof of a crash. But it could just be an overpriced listing that needed a correction. Sensationalizing one extreme case doesn’t reflect the whole market or real market.
Other creators sell courses like “Real Estate Mindset” or “Home Buying 101,” along with shirts, hats, and merch. Some aren’t even licensed agents—they’re just content creators monetizing fear. There’s the guy with Trump’s face in every video for controversy (hey, it gets views), or the one always with a fire in the background talking about the market being “cooked” or “flipping.” And don’t get me started on the foreclosure obsessives or the ones walking neighborhoods in sunglasses, spouting gloom while running realtor referral services.
The problem? YouTube’s algorithm loves this stuff. Clickbaity titles and thumbnails rank high, feeding you more of the same. It’s entertaining, sure, but it’s often self-serving and not in your best interest. These folks change narratives every few years—predicting drops, then rebounds in 2027. Seriously speaking, it is all based on guesses about rates, supply, demand, tariffs, and jobs…. and nobody can predict. Watching an hour-long Fed meeting breakdown? It’s often just a “dog and pony show.” If it sounds like a conspiracy, fine—call me a theorist—but the system’s been rigged for decades.
Even local news or CNBC clips are noise if they’re not relevant to your market. South Florida ranked “coldest”? It’s a huge area—means nothing for Portland or Austin. And those epic economists warning of “historical economic collapse”? They’re stimulating fear to sell whatever they’re peddling. Bottom line: 95% of this content is fluff designed for views, not value.
The Right Way: Focus on Local Data for Real Insights
Enough ranting—let’s get to the good stuff. The key to understanding the housing market is ditching the national hype and diving into local data. It’s transparent, accurate, and free. My go-to? Redfin’s Data Center at redfin.com/news/data-center. (No affiliation, just a tool I’ve used for years.)
Head there, scroll down (especially on mobile), and check out metrics like:
- New Listings and Pending Sales: Compare years—2022 (green line) was a peak, but 2023-2025 are bunched together. Expect similar activity to the last couple of years.
- Homes Sold: About 18.4% more sold in 2022 at this time, but recent years are steady.
- Median Sale Price and Price per Square Foot: Nationally, up 2% year-over-year. Crashing? Hardly. In Austin, down 20-25% after a 55% spike—expected correction. Portland, OR (my market)? Down 2.55% year-over-year, from $305/sq ft peak to $298 now. Adjusting, not crashing.
- Active Listings (Inventory): Up 9.91% from last year, but we’ve been undersupplied for a decade. Big funds buying homes have intensified competition. Inventory’s dipping now due to seasonality—fewer sales in fall/winter.
- Median Days on Market: Around 45 days nationally. More current than sold data (which lags by 1-2 months).
- Sale-to-List Ratio: 99% average—meaning a $500,000 listing sells for about $495,000. In hot 2022 spots, some paid 20% over—ouch. Now, it’s lukewarm; expect negotiations.
For deeper dives, switch to your metro area (e.g., Portland, OR). Avoid Portland, ME—easy mix-up! Use 4-week or 12-week views for trends. In Portland, we’re seeing gradual adjustments post-rate jumps, but nothing drastic.
Want zip-code specifics? Try Altos Research (altos.re). Search your zip (e.g., 97229 in Portland), and check price per square foot: $313 (7-day median), down from a $339 peak—about 5% lower. It’s 15-16% above Portland average due to newer homes and better schools. Use this to question listings: Why $335/sq ft when average is $314? Maybe a finished basement, views, or half-acre lot. Below average? Could be next to a highway or power lines—adjust offers accordingly.
Armed with this, you can grill your realtor: “Why’s this over/under average?” If they can’t explain (e.g., golden toilets?), walk away. This protects you from overpaying in cookie-cutter suburbs.
Bonus Tips: Mortgage Rates and Realtor Help
One more gem: For mortgage rates, skip LendingTree—they’ll spam you with calls selling your data. Check local credit unions like OnPoint (https://www.onpointcu.com/rates-rewards/personal/#homeloans) or First Tech (https://www.firsttechfed.com/rates/home-loans). They’re volume lenders with honest rates (around 5.875% recently). Bookmark it for quick checks. Fun fact: After the latest Fed cut, rates rose 1/8%—go figure.
If you need a realtor anywhere in the US, hit me up. I’ll interview options based on my experience and connect you (full disclosure: I get a referral fee, but it’s about finding the right fit).
Wrapping Up: Call Out the Fluff and Stay Informed
When you’ve been in real estate this long, you spot the fluff and have to call it out. The market isn’t cooked, doomed, or crashing—it’s adjusting based on real data. Focus on local insights, ignore the clickbait, and you’ll make smarter decisions.
Got questions? Drop a comment below. If this helped, like, subscribe, or just enjoy your day. I’ll catch you in the next one!
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Shawn Realty 