Debunking the Hype: Why Those “47% More Sellers Than Buyers” Headlines Are Misleading

Headlines Are Misleading. Hey everyone, welcome back! If you’ve been scrolling through real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines screaming about a massive imbalance in the housing market. Things like “47% more home sellers than buyers” or “37% more sellers flooding the market.” Sounds dramatic, right? But I’m here to tell you what’s really going on—and why you should pretty much ignore these numbers. Real estate news is often crafted to grab your attention and clicks, but it can leave you confused and making bad decisions. My goal today is to cut through the noise so you can understand the true picture and make smarter moves.

The Attention-Grabbing Headlines
Let’s dive into some of these headlines that are making the rounds. News outlets know exactly how to hook you, and they’re not holding back.

• Buyer Leverage Surges as Housing Market Hits Record Imbalance (Based on Redfin report).
• Redfin: Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers by a Record Margin, Upping Buyers’ Bargaining Power. They claim there were a record 47% more home sellers than buyers in December, giving buyers in the market some serious negotiating power.

That’s partially true—more sellers do mean better leverage for buyers. But that 47% figure? I dug into it, and it’s seriously flawed. According to Redfin’s own explanation: “We estimated the number of buyers using proprietary Redfin data on the typical time from a buyer’s first tour to close of purchase, and MLS data on active listings and pending listings.” If you know anything about data science or stats, this screams problems. It’s “proprietary,” meaning their secret algorithm that no one else can verify. Worse, they’re only using data from their own website. Redfin gets maybe 30% of the internet traffic for home searches at best—Zillow dominates, and then there’s Realtor.com and a bunch of others. If you combine them all, Redfin’s slice is tiny. So, basing a national number on that? It’s baseless. And that’s not all. What about buyers who got preapproved back in 2022, 2023, 2024, or even earlier this year, but haven’t toured a single property because nothing matches their criteria? I’m literally texting with a buyer right now who’s signed on with me as their agent. They haven’t seen one listing in their search parameters for the last two months. I told them we’d see more in mid-January, but nada. These folks haven’t done a “tour,” so they’re not counted in Redfin’s data. Plus, many buyers aren’t even using Redfin agents or their site—they’re getting MLS data directly from agents like me. So, they’re excluded too. How can you trust a report that misses so much?

The Echo Chamber: Same Story, Different Sites
It’s not just Redfin. Check out these other sources parroting the same stats:

• World Property Journal: “US Housing Market Hits Largest Buyer-Seller Imbalance on Record.” They mention 47% too—straight from Redfin.
• Marketplace.org: Again, 47%. Sourced from… you guessed it, Redfin.
• Business Wire: “Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers—the Most on Record, Likely Causing Home Prices to Fall.” Same baseless number.

All these sites are just regurgitating Redfin’s report without questioning it. Why? Because sensational headlines drive traffic, and traffic sells ads. It’s their business model. But reading this stuff will just make you confused and fearful, leading to poor decisions.

The Real Story: Why These Numbers Don’t Matter
Here’s the truth: Nobody has the exact count of active buyers. There are tons of people preapproved and watching the market from the sidelines. They’re browsing online a couple times a week, waiting for the right property or a price drop. If interest rates shift even a little tomorrow, their buying power changes—they could suddenly afford more. For example, folks who got preapproved in early 2025? Mortgage rates have dropped almost 1% since then, slashing monthly payments by about 10%. Some know it, some don’t, but they’re still out there, ready to pounce when more listings hit or prices adjust. The real reason inventory is low? The “lock-in effect.” Current homeowners want to sell and move—maybe downsize, upsize, or headed to retirement home—but their super-low interest rates (from the pandemic era) are too good to give up. So, they’re staying put. That means fewer homes on the market, fewer viewings, and buyers sitting tight. Redfin claiming “Less buyers than sellers”? It’s complete speculation—and honestly, a bit of a lie. They don’t share their full methodology. If they said, “Hey, based on our site traffic, we see X active searchers,” and showed the data, that’d be one thing. But they’re not. And are they counting buyers like mine, who just got preapproved last month but haven’t toured anything yet? Doubt it.

What You Should Do Instead
I always say this: Skip the national headlines and talk to local experts. Look at data for your specific zip code or city—every market is different. This “47%” or “37%” stuff isn’t relevant anywhere because it’s built on shaky ground from a site with partial traffic.

Reality check: The market could shift fast with more inventory or rate changes. Don’t let clickbait scare you off.

Wrapping Up
This kind of nonsense news just fires me up—it’s why I make these videos (and now blogs!). If you have thoughts, questions, or think I’m wrong, drop a comment below. I don’t get offended easily, so bring it on. Thanks for reading! If this helped, give it a like or share. Catch you next time!