Welcome to the Shawn Realty Podcast, where we break down the latest real estate trends and data to help you make informed decisions. I’m Shawn Yu, your host from the beautiful, mosquito-free summer haven of Portland, Oregon. Today, we’re diving into the median sale price per square foot across several major U.S. cities, exploring market trends, and sharing insights from recent real estate news. Let’s get started!
Median Sale Prices Per Square Foot in Major U.S. Cities (July 2025)
The housing market in 2025 is a mixed bag, with some cities experiencing stagnation, others seeing slight declines, and a few defying the odds with growth. Below, I’ve compiled the median sale price per square foot for key metro areas, along with year-over-year changes, based on the latest data.
- Portland, Oregon:
- Median Sale Price per Sq. Ft.: $384.46
- Year-over-Year Change: -0.02%
- Analysis: Portland’s market is virtually flat, with prices barely budging from last year. Compared to the 2022 peak, prices are slightly down, reflecting a market adjustment rather than a crash. Portland’s market is holding steady, but it’s not seeing the explosive growth of previous years.
- Seattle, Washington:
- Median Sale Price per Sq. Ft.: $486.26
- Year-over-Year Change: -0.5%
- Analysis: Seattle is experiencing a slight dip, aligning with broader market cooling. Despite this, the city remains one of the pricier markets, with high demand keeping prices elevated compared to many other metros.
- San Francisco, California:
- Median Sale Price per Sq. Ft.: $989.24
- Year-over-Year Change: -3.14%
- Analysis: San Francisco’s famously expensive market is seeing a noticeable decline, with a significant gap between current prices and the 2022 peak. Buyers who purchased at the height of the market may find themselves underwater, highlighting the risks of buying at peak prices.
- San Diego, California:
- Median Sale Price per Sq. Ft.: $596.44
- Year-over-Year Change: -1.39%
- Analysis: San Diego’s market is slightly down but remains healthier than 2023 levels, though it lags behind 2024. The city’s stability makes it a middle ground between booming and struggling markets.
- Austin, Texas:
- Median Sale Price per Sq. Ft.: $219.27
- Year-over-Year Change: -4.5%
- Analysis: Austin stands out as one of the hardest-hit markets, largely due to the tech boom and subsequent correction. Prices peaked at $291 per square foot in 2022, driven by an influx of buyers, including Californians and high-profile figures like Joe Rogan. The current -4.5% year-over-year drop signals a significant correction, and buyers from the 2022 peak may need 7-10 years to break even.
- Houston, Texas:
- Median Sale Price per Sq. Ft.: $165.94
- Year-over-Year Change: -0.77%
- Analysis: Houston boasts one of the lowest price-per-square-foot rates among major metros, making it an attractive option for buyers. With rents outpacing home prices, buying in Houston may make more financial sense than renting, even with high property taxes and insurance costs due to flood and windstorm risks.
- Miami, Florida:
- Median Sale Price per Sq. Ft.: $390.44
- Year-over-Year Change: +1.02%
- Analysis: Miami is bucking the national trend, with prices rising slightly compared to last year. The city’s market is performing better than both 2022 and 2023, driven by strong demand and limited supply.
National Housing Market Trends: A Confusing Landscape
Nationally, the housing market is up year-over-year, according to Redfin data, but this masks significant regional variations. Some markets are plateauing, others are declining, and a few are still climbing. The term “crash” is often misused—after a 35% price surge over the past three years, current declines are better described as market adjustments. A recent New York Times article highlighted a peculiar trend: homes are not selling (low sales volume), yet prices continue to rise in many areas. This paradox stems from a supply-demand imbalance. Sellers who don’t need to sell are pulling listings off the market, keeping inventory tight and prices elevated. Nationally, inventory stands at about 4 months of supply, a far cry from the 18 months seen during the 2008 crash.
What’s Newsworthy in Real Estate? Insights from Grok
Using Grok, xAI’s AI tool, I pulled the latest real estate news for July 2025. Here are the key takeaways:
- Housing Market Trends:
- Existing home sales dropped in June 2025, despite rising inventory, as high mortgage rates (around 6.85%) continue to challenge affordability.
- Nearly one-third of major U.S. markets are seeing price declines, though the national median home price hit a record $447,054, up 1% year-over-year.
- Annual home price growth slowed to 1-1.8% in June 2025, down from 5% the previous year, with markets like Florida, Texas, and Washington, D.C., reporting negative growth (-0.5% to -2.1%). Meanwhile, Midwestern and Northeastern markets like Illinois (+6.4%) and Connecticut are seeing stronger gains.
- Inventory Growth:
- Housing inventory rose to 1.97 million homes in June 2025, up 7.8% year-over-year and 29% from June 2024. This marks the 15th consecutive month of inventory growth, giving buyers more options but still falling short of pre-COVID levels.
- Mortgage Rates:
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.8% in June 2025, slightly down from 6.9% earlier in the year but double the pandemic-era lows. Experts predict rates may stabilize around 6.5% by year-end if inflation cools, but significant drops are unlikely.
- High rates are suppressing demand and creating a “lock-in effect,” where homeowners with low-rate mortgages are reluctant to sell, further limiting inventory.
- Foreign Investment:
- Chinese buyers remain the top foreign investors in U.S. residential real estate, spending $56 billion over the past year, signaling a resurgence in global interest.
- Policy and Regulations:
- California implemented new laws limiting annual rent hikes to 7.7% for certain apartments, while a proposal for extended eviction relief was rejected.
- Honolulu is considering property tax relief, and Chicago’s mayor downplayed talks of a property tax hike.
- Legal Issues:
- The National Association of Realtors had a lawsuit challenging MLS dues rules dismissed.
- Fannie Mae faces a discrimination lawsuit from over 60 former employees.
- Real estate brokers Tal and Alon Alexander are facing sex trafficking charges in New York.
- Notable Transactions:
- Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is investing in New York City’s real estate, capitalizing on declining prices to secure deals.
- Market Challenges:
- Seniors holding onto homes with low mortgage rates are limiting inventory for first-time buyers, exacerbating affordability issues.
- Climate risks, with $128.2 billion in weather-related damages in 2024, are impacting luxury real estate. Uninsurable homes in high-risk areas are difficult to finance, as lenders require homeowners’ insurance.
- Commercial Real Estate:
- The commercial sector shows early signs of recovery in 2025, with office markets stabilizing, retail maintaining low vacancy rates, and data centers booming due to AI and cloud computing demand. However, high interest rates and upcoming loan maturities pose challenges, with some commercial properties selling at less than 10% of their 2019 values.
My Take: Navigating the 2025 Market
As a real estate professional with 17 years of experience, I can confidently say I’ve never seen a market quite like this. It’s an odd mix of sluggish sales, rising prices, and tight inventory, driven by high mortgage rates and the lock-in effect. Here are my key takeaways for buyers and sellers:
- For Buyers:
- Be strategic and focus on value. In markets like Houston, where home prices are low relative to rents, buying may make more sense than renting, even with high property taxes and insurance costs.
- In cooling markets like Austin, patience could pay off as prices continue to adjust. However, in hot markets like Miami or the Northeast, competition remains fierce, so act decisively for well-priced properties.
- For Sellers:
- Pricing is critical. Overpriced listings, even slightly, are sitting without showings. Buyers are savvy and know what represents good value.
- If you don’t need to sell, consider renting out your property, especially in strong rental markets like Portland. Alternatively, stay put for another year, as the market remains soft.
- If you must sell in 2025, list now—July is still a strong time to sell. Waiting until late October risks a cooler market. Work with a hardworking listing agent who can prepare your home quickly (within 3-6 days) by decluttering, rearranging furniture, and making the space look spacious.
- Market Outlook:
- The proposed elimination of capital gains tax exemptions (up to $250,000 for individuals or $500,000 for couples) could motivate more homeowners to sell, potentially easing the inventory bottleneck.
- Insurance costs, driven by wildfires, floods, and storms, need better regulation. The current “Wild West” approach by insurance companies is making it harder for buyers to secure financing in high-risk areas.
Final Thoughts
The 2025 housing market is a complex puzzle, with regional variations and macroeconomic factors like mortgage rates and inventory shaping the landscape. Whether you’re a buyer looking for value or a seller navigating a soft market, now is the time to be strategic. If you’re in Portland, Oregon, and have questions about listing or buying, feel free to reach out at 503-515-4499. Thanks for reading, and I hope you found this deep dive into the housing market helpful. If you enjoyed this post, share it with others, and stay tuned for more real estate insights. Have a great weekend, and I’ll catch you in the next one!
Disclaimer: Data and trends are based on the latest available information as of July 2025. Always consult with a local real estate professional for personalized advice.
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