I was in my 5th year of selling real estate when I predicted the future of the Portland real estate market in 2012, connecting the dots…
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I was wrong about two things:
- How long the flat equity period would last (I bought into the National Association of Realtors’s (NAR) prediction); it was much shorter, which was less than a year. The flat equity period didn’t really exist and looking back, 2012 was already an upswing market.
- I was too conservative with a projection of a 5% annual appreciation; it was 10-15% in some of the years from 2014-2018 (in Portland, Oregon).
I was correct:
- The best time to sell is coming if sellers can wait 5 years or more.
- Market prediction.. for sellers, it depends, for buyers, it is the best time to buy!
First of all, thanks to all of your support, I was able to make a new company of my own. I’m very excited about new opportunities and growth. I hope to be a part of your success and growth as well. I believe that entrepreneurship should be encouraged for everyone – if you own a business and/or want to build a business, talk to me to bounce off your business ideas. I love that kind of talk.
So here’s my market update for the next 7 years!!
- 3-5% of steady appreciation & no double-digit appreciation for a while… So I will try not to use the word, “best to buy or sell”. Because It depends on your individual situation, I’ll break it down for everyone. No one size fits all, like socks.
- Thinking about buying? Then pay attention to the interest rates. You can’t really control house price (just like stock price), but If you see close to 4%, it’s time to buy. Just make sure to pay the fair market price on the property.
- If you are renting and plan to be in the Portland area for more than 3 years, buy one sooner than later. The rent is still very high, which can go toward a house payment that will let you own something in a few decades or at least give you some cash when you sell and leave town.
- If you are thinking about selling, you will see a small but steady equity building, so assess the property. For example, if you own a home that is valued below $425k right now in the Portland Metro area, consider turning that into an investment property. If that is not an option, now is a good time to leverage the interest rate to downsize or upsize, depending on your real estate needs. Be careful about dealing with iBuyer programs out there. Big companies are reaching out to homeowners very aggressively. Their main goal is to make a profit. Shawn Realty’s main goal is to protect our client’s best interest and then make a profit, fiduciary or non-fiduciary. If you’d like an assessment of your situation and your property, I’ll be more than happy to help you out with that, so just let me know.
- For Investors, Focus on the long-term holding strategy, 15-30 years, not so much of short-term strategy or cash flow.
I believe that everyone should have some kind of investment, preferably in real estate, which is one of the most stable investments.
Factors
- Portland is still a very attractive city with a steady influx of people and businesses. Both Intel and Nike are literally building and expanding. That’s a great sign for the real estate market.
- Tight Urban Growth Boundaries limit the growth, so a housing shortage will continue which will push the price upward.
- The rent control law may have scared away some investors, but still, the demand is strong.
Have a great summer and please let me know how I can help!