Is 2026 the Worst or the Best Real Estate Market?

What 18 years of selling homes in Portland tells me about this market

Today’s real estate question is: is 2026 the worst real estate market or the best one?

Short answer: to me, 2026 is a lukewarm market. It’s not the worst market by far, and it’s not the best by far. There are good chances to sell and good chances to buy, and you can lose money on either side if you do it wrong.

I’m Shawn Yu. I’ve been selling real estate in Bethany and Beaverton since 2008. I talked about this in a video, and this post follows it.

First, decide who you are

Worst market and best market depend on who is looking. In 2008, investors thought it was one of the best markets because they could find real steals. Buyers did pretty well too. But for home sellers, it was the worst time. Some people lost close to 40% of their home value.

So start by asking yourself: am I a first-time buyer? Do I need to sell my home and buy another one, moving up or moving down? Or am I an investor? This post is for regular buyers and sellers, not investors.

Then figure out what matters most to you right now. Maybe you need two more bedrooms. Can your budget handle a bigger monthly cost to get them? Would you rather save money and make the space you have work, or move to get more room or a shorter commute? Each of those has a different price tag, and only you can decide which one is worth it.

The four markets I’ve worked in

2008 to 2012. This was the worst market for anyone who had to sell and buy. When I started, I thought it was normal for a house to sit on the market for 13 months. But if you only needed to buy, that was a great time. Lots of choices, low prices, and falling mortgage rates: the average 30-year fixed rate was about 6% for 2008 and about 3.7% for 2012, according to Freddie Mac.

2013 to 2018. This was good for both sides. Prices were still reasonable, sellers could still get good money, and there were plenty of sales. A lot of agents like me look back on those years as the good old days, and some people call it the normal market.

2020 to 2025. This was the weirdest market I’ve seen. In the beginning, 30 people would line up at one open house, and you had to beat 20 other offers because rates were so low. Then in 2022 rates went way up, nobody could afford much, and not many homes sold. I think I sold more homes in 2012 than in 2022 or 2023.

2026 and the next six or seven years. My opinion is that this run will look a lot like 2013 to 2018. I think if we look back from 2036, we’ll say 2026 was a good market. Rates were around 6% (the average 30-year fixed rate was 6.23% as of April 23, 2026, per Freddie Mac), prices came down a little, you could still find decent deals, and competition wasn’t crazy like 2021. This isn’t a loan offer; talk to a lender for your rate.

Update, Oct 2026: rates have run higher than this forecast; Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed was 7.40% the week of October 15, 2026.

Why it feels worse than it is

When you watch the news, it sounds like everything is falling apart. War, oil prices, inflation, unemployment, AI taking jobs. When all of that hits you at once, it’s easy to feel like this is the worst time to buy or sell.

But people have felt that way in every decade. In 1981, the average 30-year fixed rate was about 16.6% for the year, per Freddie Mac, and people back then thought it was a terrible time too. Looking back, we remember those years as good ones.

Homes do feel expensive right now, because they are. Prices are high and rates are high. I also think money is losing its value faster than just inflation, and that pushes home prices up over time.

What real estate has done over time

In my experience, real estate holds its value better than most other assets. Stocks, Bitcoin, and metals go through big peaks and valleys. When I zoom out 10 years, real estate around here has gone up, though there’s no guarantee it always will.

Some people will say the S&P 500 is a better investment. Maybe it is. But you can’t borrow most of the money to buy stocks. With a home, many buyers can put down a small down payment and borrow the rest. That leverage is a big part of how regular people build wealth with a house.

People who bought in 2008 and kept their homes are doing just fine. Many of those homes almost tripled in value. If I had a time machine, I’d go back to 2011 and buy as many houses as I could.

When buying in 2026 would be a mistake

If you buy now, the monthly payment might feel heavy, even if it’s manageable. Where people get hurt is buying high and then selling in three years because of a job change. If you buy now, stay in town, keep up the house, and let it appreciate for 10 years, I think you’ll be glad you did.

If you’re selling and wondering about timing, here’s my take on the best time to sell a house in Portland.

So, worst or best?

2026 is in between. It’s a lukewarm market with some good chances to buy and sell, and you can still make mistakes on either side. Decide who you are and what matters most to you, look at what real estate has done over time instead of the daily news, and make a plan you can stay with for the long run.

If you’re thinking about selling, start with what your home is worth today. Get your home’s value. Call or text Shawn Yu at 503-515-4499.

Thanks for reading. Have a great day.

Shawn Yu
Shawn Realty | Portland / Bethany, Oregon
shawn-realty.com