Where Are All the Home Buyers? Showing Index vs the Headlines

A better way to measure buyer activity than the headlines

Today’s real estate question is: where are all the home buyers?

They’re still out there. What’s missing is a clean way to measure them. A lot of the headlines use buyer-versus-seller percentages that never explain how the number was built. I don’t put much weight on those. What I look at is showings — how many buyers are actually walking through listings.

I’m Shawn Yu, a broker in Bethany, 97229, and Beaverton, and I’ve been doing this since 2008. I covered this on my YouTube channel on November 9, 2026, and this post follows that video.

Why I don’t trust most “buyer shortage” headlines

You’ll see charts that say buyers are way behind sellers by some big percentage. The problem is they usually don’t share the formula. If I can’t see how they counted buyers and sellers, I treat it as noise. Same with a claim like “30% more buyers” with no method behind it. Don’t put weight on that.

What I watch instead: lockbox access and the ShowingTime index

Locally, I look at buyer lockbox access. In my market, winter weeks can run around 15,000 accesses, and a busy summer week can be closer to 22,000. That tells me buyers are still touring homes, even when the mood feels slow.

Nationally, I look at the ShowingTime showing index. ShowingTime is the scheduling app a lot of agents use to set up showings. It doesn’t cover the whole country — market share is maybe half or less, and other key systems are still out there — but it does give a baseline you can compare over time. They set January 2014 at 100.

What the numbers say right now

On the west side — Pacific Northwest, including California — the index was about 97.1 when I recorded this. That’s roughly 3% below the 2014 baseline. Countrywide, it was about 29% above 2014. So the country as a whole is seeing more showings per listing than in 2014. The west side is a little below that old mark, which is why it can feel closer to a 2013 pace out here.

Year over year on the west side, 2025 was down about 23% from the year before. In 2026, the index was up about 5.5% versus last year. So 2026 is better than 2025 on this measure, even if it still doesn’t feel like a hot market.

2013-level buyers, but not a 2013 market

Based on that data, buyer activity per listing on the west side looks similar to around 2013. That does not mean today’s market is 2013. Back then, inventory was much higher — I’d guess somewhere in the five-to-seven-month range after we came out of roughly 18 months of inventory around 2010. Buyers had more listings to pick from, including foreclosure and short-sale deals. We don’t have that many listings now.

Mortgage applications alone aren’t a clean buyer count either. There are still “shadow” buyers who got approved three, four, or five years ago. They may browse once a week, but a lot of them aren’t writing offers because a payment near $5,000 a month is hard to swallow. So application counts understate how many people are casually looking and overstate how many are ready to buy.

What this feels like on the ground

As a listing agent, I’ve done open houses where nobody shows up, or one buyer walks through, and I wonder where everyone went. Is it the weather? The economy? Mortgage rates? Affordability is low, and buyers are careful. But I’m still working with buyers who go see a home when a strong listing hits. They’re active. They’re just more cautious.

For neighborhood-level numbers in my area, start with the 97229 market update. That page is more useful than a national headline when you’re deciding what to do with a home in Bethany, Cedar Mill, or nearby Beaverton.

Summary

Buyers haven’t disappeared. On a showings-per-listing basis, west-side activity looks closer to 2013 than to the peak years, while the country overall is above 2014. 2026 is stronger than 2025 on that index. Skip the vague percentage headlines. Use something you can compare to history, and remember inventory today is much thinner than it was in 2013.

If you’re buying or selling in Bethany, 97229, Cedar Mill, or Beaverton and want a straight read on your situation, start with a home value or call or text me at 503-515-4499.

Thanks for reading. Have a great day.

Shawn Yu, Shawn Realty
shawn-realty.com