Social media says the housing market is dead. Nobody’s buying. Nobody’s selling. Prices should drop 50%. Mortgage rates are unaffordable. Politicians (POTUS and Oregon Senator) toss around $5,000 or $50,000 like campaign candy.
That’s the noise. Here’s what’s actually happening in Portland, Oregon.
If we haven’t met: I’m Shawn Yu. I’ve been selling real estate in the Portland metro since 2008 and I own Shawn Realty. This update uses fresh RMLS data—the regional multiple listing service—not the delayed numbers you’ll see on Zillow or Redfin in four or five weeks.
I broke down Portland real estate in video format here
Portland Metro Right Now (Tri-County)
Clackamas, Washington, and Multnomah counties combined:
- 4,222 active listings
- Last week
- 464 new listings hit the market
- 350 homes went pending (accepted offers)
- 275 homes sold
Every week, roughly 10% of current inventory comes on the market. A little less than 10% sells. Annualize that week and you get about 1,400 homes going under contract per month—about one-third of total inventory.
That’s about 3 months of inventory.
If no new listings came on the market at all, it would take three months to sell everything currently listed. Some people call this the absorption rate.
3 Months of Inventory Is Not a Dead Market
I lived through 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011. Inventory was far higher then. Plenty of homes sat 12 months or longer. The highest inventory was in January 2009, 19.2 months!!
Three months of inventory is nothing compared with that.
If you started buying or selling after 2020—when homes flew off the shelf in days—this feels dead. It isn’t. Talk to a realtor who started in 2021 and they’ll tell you the market is dead. After 18 years, I see a market that is alive and well—just slower than the last several years.
High mortgage rates are the main reason. Not a collapse in demand. Not homes being wildly overpriced.
The “Prices Must Drop 50%” Idea
Some people argue that because rates roughly doubled, prices must fall 50%. That’s naive.
Everything else went up. Groceries, cars, services—inflation. Money lost purchasing power. Homes are not sitting in a vacuum waiting to be marked down like last year’s phones.
If you are waiting for a 50% discount day on Portland homes, good luck with that. I don’t see it.
Portland City Snapshot (Not the Full Metro)
Looking at Portland proper only:
- Median list price: about $640,000
- About $337 per square foot
- Average days on market: 99 days
- Median days on market: 63 days
- About 47% of listings have taken a price reduction
- Price increases: 0% (thankfully—no one is raising the price because it isn’t selling)
- About 1,600 active listings in the city (roughly one-third of the metro total)
- Median rent: about $2,700
Sellers who price correctly still move. Sellers who chase 2021 numbers sit.
The 2019–2026 Price Picture
If you look at the last seven years, 2021–2022 was the peak. We have come off that peak and are now sitting close to 2020 levels—still slightly above 2020.
Call it a bubble if you want. The chart looks similar across most of the country. A few markets (Miami, Austin, and some others) look completely different. Inside Portland, some neighborhoods peaked less and some have come down more. That’s normal real estate.
Who is fine? People who bought at 3%.
Who is hurting? A lot of people who bought at 7%.
The lock-in effect is real. High rates keep many owners from listing. That keeps inventory from exploding even while demand is quieter.
What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling
This is not 2021. It is also not 2009.
Buyers have more time and more negotiating room than they did a few years ago. Well-priced, well-presented homes still go pending. Overpriced homes sit and then cut price—almost half of current listings already have.
Sellers who need to move can still sell. The ones who wait for last year’s frenzy or a 50% crash are the ones who get stuck.
Rates are the boss on this market. When they ease, activity picks up. Until then, strategy, pricing, and condition matter more than headlines.
Questions about a specific neighborhood, your home’s value, or whether this is a good time for your situation? Call or text me at 503-515-4499 or reach out at shawn-realty.com.
Data from RMLS weekly activity. Markets move by neighborhood and price point—always look at the street, not just the metro average.
— Shawn Yu, Principal Broker, Shawn Realty
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