Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House?

It Depends on Your Life Stage and Your Numbers, Not the Calendar

Today’s real estate question is: is now a good time to buy a house?

Short answer: trying to time the market usually doesn’t work. Look at three things instead: where you are in life, whether the numbers work for you, and where prices sit compared to the long-term median.

I’m Shawn Yu, a Bethany broker, and I’ve been selling for about 18 years. I talked through this in House Decisions Episode 2, and this post follows it.

Timing is not your friend

If you wait for the perfect time, everybody else is waiting for it too. When it comes, you’re competing with all of them.

2021 is a good example. Rates were around 3%, and a lot of people bought. The ones who don’t have to sell are fine. But people who have to sell in 2026 are in trouble, because they paid really high prices. It was a FOMO market. For some people it was a great time to buy, and for others it was a bad one.

1. Your personal stage

This one matters no matter what year it is.

One of my daughters is in her twenties and just got her first job in a big city. I’d tell her not to buy there in her first year, maybe not her second or third either. She might not love the job. She might not love the city. She could get promoted to another state or go back to school. Then the house becomes a burden.

But if you’ve been in your job three years or more, you love your job and your city, you’ve been saving, and you’ve been paying rent to a landlord all that time, maybe it’s time.

I’ve seen young buyers get hurt badly enough that they told me, “I don’t ever want to buy a house again.” I don’t want that to be you. Sit down and think through your age, your career, and your city first.

2. Buy with the numbers, not emotion

A first home at the median price usually doesn’t look like an HGTV house. It might be an older two-bedroom, one-bath. That’s okay if it’s what you can afford.

The payment has to make sense to you. Not to your coworker, not to your friends at the tennis club. Buy with emotion and you can end up with a house that’s too big, too expensive, or just the wrong house.

One quick check on whether a house holds its value: ask yourself, would I rent this house? If yes, how much would I pay, say $2,000 a month? Then compare that rent with what it would cost you to buy. If the gap is double or more, I’d pass, especially as a first-time buyer.

If you already own and you’re thinking about buying again in 2026, I think it can be a good time if you do it by the numbers. Some homes are sitting 90 days or more. Those owners are motivated, and you may be able to get a credit to buy down your rate. There aren’t many buyers out right now. Inventory is limited, so choices are limited too, but if a seller drops $30,000 on a house you like, go ahead and make that offer. You might have to write a few. Winter is usually one of the best times to find a deal.

Will 2027 be better? Nobody knows. Rates could go to 8% or down to 6%. Prices could go up or down. Nobody knows.

3. Watch the median price

Search for the Portland or Oregon median price over the last 15 years and look at the chart. If prices dropped a lot, that’s great for a buyer. If they shot up way too fast, be careful.

Be extra careful if you might move within three years, say for a promotion to Arizona. Many people who bought in 2021 have lower payments than buyers today, but they can’t sell because they paid so much, and they can’t rent it out because the rent doesn’t cover the mortgage. They’re stuck.

I recently met a homeowner who has to rent out their townhome at a loss and move out of state for a new job. Renting will cost them at least a couple hundred dollars a month. Selling would lose them about $100,000 on a townhome worth around $500,000 to $600,000. They overpaid, and it was a brand-new townhome that cost even more. If I’d met them before they bought, I would have told them to be careful on that one.

A good agent should understand the median price and give you advice that fits the market. In a hot market, sometimes I tell buyers they need to pay more to get the house. Right now, fall 2026, Austin, Texas is the opposite. It’s down about 20% from its peak. If you draw a straight line through its 15-year median-price chart, it’s back near about a 4% yearly increase. When a market is in that range, I think it’s on target, and that’s a good time to buy.

So… is now a good time to buy?

Look at your own situation first. Then compare the numbers. Don’t buy with emotion. Buy with the numbers.

If you’d need to sell your current home to buy, start with what it’s worth. Get your home’s value. Call or text 503-515-4499. (Sell first or buy first?)

Thanks for reading. Have a great day.

Shawn Yu
Shawn Realty | Portland / Bethany, Oregon
shawn-realty.com